OPINION - Second Trump term: What's next for Israel-Palestine conflict?

-Betting on a Trump presidency to bring stability to the Middle East seems like a bold but risky wager. Trump's deep ties to Israel and influential figures there offer little promise for a better future for Palestinians or a tangible path toward statehood

-Trump's vision of regional order in the Middle East has been rooted in the idea of Arab-Israeli normalization. This framework sidelines the Palestinian issue, granting Israel a significant degree of freedom in its actions

If anyone was ready to cheer a Donald Trump reelection, it was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite their relationship cooling toward the end of Trump's first term particularly after Netanyahu quickly congratulated Joe Biden on his 2020 win, a gesture Trump took as traitorous, the two share deep ideological ties. This time around, Netanyahu didn't wait. He enthusiastically hailed Trump's “greatest comeback” even before the Nov. 5 results were final. Adding to the chorus, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz, eagerly celebrated Trump's potential return as a chance to strike at the “axis of evil led by Iran.”

- Trump's foreign policy agenda will resume from where it paused in 2020

For Netanyahu, a second Trump term promises a renewed alignment on Middle Eastern policy, with both leaders seeing eye to eye on pushing back against all anti-Israel elements. During his campaign, Trump promoted a message of peace, calling for an end to conflicts worldwide. Now, with Israel's recent Gaza offensive following the deadly Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, Trump has indirectly endorsed Israel's intent to “finish the job” against Hamas, though specifics of his plan remain undefined. His longstanding alliance with Netanyahu is likely to influence his approach, especially given Trump's previous support for Israeli claims over Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.

Trump has floated ideas for ambitious developments in Gaza but has not articulated a clear strategy for postwar recovery. Meanwhile, ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah add to the complexities Trump will face when he takes charge of the White House. Though his previous term provides some precedent, such as his stance on Israel-Palestine, United States (US)-Gulf relations, and Iran, Trump's America First philosophy may temper his regional strategy, making it a little difficult to predict the exact course he would take in his second term.

Donald Trump's election as the 47th president is hardly shocking in today's polarized America, with the Democrats stumbling through mishap after mishap. But as he heads back to the Oval Office, expect the return of his signature slogans, “America First” and “Make America Great Again,” which might sound reassuring to some but will likely do little for immediate, widespread progress. Trump's foreign policy agenda will resume from where it paused in 2020, with unfinished business involving China, Russia, and the US allies in the European Union (EU) and NATO.

Yet, the landscape is far from what it was. Today, he steps into a world still roiling from active conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, fueled by Biden's funding and arms deals. Trump, in his Florida victory speech, pledged to “stop war,” hinting at cease-fires and peace deals as his next bold moves. Still, let's not get ahead of ourselves. By his January inauguration, the Biden administration may well squeeze in symbolic gestures, maybe a cease-fire attempt or executive orders with limited impact.

- Renewed antagonism toward international institutions

In 2018, President Trump made a scurrilous move to halt US funding for the UN agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA). While President Biden partially reversed this decision in 2021, the return of Trump to the White House in 2025 raises the specter of renewed antagonism toward international institutions like UNRWA.

This spells trouble for displaced Palestinians who rely heavily on the agency for essential services, including health care and education. With Gaza in the grip of an Israeli assault that has already claimed over 44,000 lives, including 28,000 women and children, the role of UNRWA has never been more vital. The agency is fighting to maintain its operations amid the chaos, but its future is increasingly uncertain.

Just last week, Israel compounded the crisis by canceling its cooperation agreement with UNRWA, which had been in place since 1967. Should Trump cut US funding again, it could deliver a devastating blow from which the agency may never recover. The Palestinian leadership and the international community must brace for this possibility.

- Region faces new layer of unpredictability

Betting on a Trump presidency to bring stability to the Middle East seems like a bold but risky wager. Trump's deep ties to Israel and influential figures there offer little promise for a better future for Palestinians or a tangible path toward statehood. Trump's past dealings with Gulf monarchies and strongmen suggest he may revert to a transactional playbook. When the Trump's second era resumes, two key priorities are likely to shape his approach to the region. First, he would almost certainly focus less on long-term peace and more on short-term geopolitical wins, hoping regional players will shoulder responsibilities often held by Washington. Yet, in a region as complex as the Middle East, the stakes remain high, and the outcomes are far from assured.

Trump's vision of regional order in the Middle East has been rooted in the idea of Arab-Israeli normalization, with US support playing a central role. This framework sidelines the Palestinian issue, granting Israel a significant degree of freedom in its actions. Both Trump and Biden, despite their differences, have adhered to elements of this broader strategy, with each president navigating the complexities of the region in their own way. Trump's abrupt withdrawal from Syria and Biden's hasty exit from Afghanistan reflect a common thread: a tendency to retreat from direct US involvement without resolving the underlying issues.

With a second Trump term, the region faces a new layer of unpredictability. Trump's impulsiveness and erratic decision-making could either escalate tensions pushing Israel and Iran toward open conflict or, conversely, provide an opportunity to de-escalate the situation. This volatility reinforces the perception among regional actors that a cautious, balancing approach may remain the most prudent strategy. The region's power players are likely to continue hedging their bets, preparing for a future where the US role remains as unpredictable as ever.

*​​​​​​​The author is a geostrategic analyst and freelance columnist on international affairs.