Trump's posturing has triggered concerns for critical Asia-Pacific partners such as Japan and South Korea, say analysts
Donald Trump's resounding victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election has left US allies across Asia-Pacific grappling with uncertainty, and all sorts of concerns are growing as his inauguration inches closer.
Among them, Japan and South Korea stand out as Washington's most critical partners, hosting the bulk of American troops under decades-long bilateral treaties. Yet, memories of Trump's first term linger uneasily in Tokyo and Seoul.
Analysts believe Trump will once again demand that US allies shoulder more of the financial burden for hosting American troops.
“We (Japan) are not expecting something will get better,” Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo, told Anadolu.
“What we can do is to avoid anything bad happening.”
For Japan, already grappling with economic stagnation, an increased financial commitment to US military deployment would be “hard to do.”
“We have already committed to doubling our defense spending,” explained Suzuki, who is also the director of the Institute of Geoeconomics at the International House of Japan.
“We are expecting Trump will use tariffs as a negotiation tactic,” he added, predicting a “tough relationship” with Washington under the new administration.
However, Washington-based journalist and author Tim Shorrock believes that Japan, home to over 50,000 American troops for more than seven decades, may still be viewed by the US as its “most stable ally in the Pacific.”
“The ruling party in Japan is remarkably pro-American,” Shorrock told Anadolu, referring to the Liberal Democratic Party, which was founded in 1955 and has dominated Japan's political landscape for much of the post-World War II era.
“That's why it was created – to keep US bases in Japan and serve as a strategic ally.”
- Trump yet to clarify Asia strategy
In the broader Asia-Pacific region, allies are awaiting clarity on Trump's policy direction, particularly concerning China.
“At the moment, his strategy is more like ‘grandstanding,' which consists mainly of suggesting that allies will have to pay more in material costs, while promising that he will reach some kind of agreement with the enemy,” said Chien-Yu Shih, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei.
“The problem is that these two propositions appear incompatible on the surface, absent more policy detail.”
During his first term, Trump waged a trade war against China, imposing tariffs on imports. While he has vowed to repeat such measures, he has also hinted at potential cooperation with Beijing, stating that the US and China could “solve all the problems of the world” together.
Taiwan remains a flashpoint in US-China relations, with Washington's arms sales to the island further complicating the one-China policy, while Chinese President Xi Jinping has not ruled out using force to unify Taiwan with the mainland.
“There are so many unknown policy details that many US allies may begin to feel anxious,” Shih warned.
In South Korea, recent political instability has added to the uncertainty.
The failed Dec. 3 martial law attempt by suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol could be seen as a “butterfly effect” triggered by broader geopolitical shifts, Shih suggested.
Amid these developments, some allies may explore stabilizing ties with China, while trying to appease the US, according to Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy advisor at the International Crisis Group.
“To curry favor with the incoming administration, many of them will likely pledge to boost defense spending and increase their investment in the US,” he told Anadolu.
However, he expects US allies “will also likely work harder to stabilize their ties with China and cultivate new partnerships.
“They appreciate that Trump's ‘America First' worldview is not a passing phenomenon,” he added.
- Expect negotiations at the top level
The impact of Trump's second term on America's security posture in Asia will depend partly on the influence of his senior advisors.
“While Trump himself seems open to an international order that revolves around spheres of influence, many of his top appointees will likely advocate much more aggressive efforts to contain China militarily,” said Wyne.
Trump has picked known China hawks – Marco Rubio, John Ratcliffe, Pete Hegseth – to lead foreign, intelligence, and defense affairs.
According to Wyne, Trump believes that he can “reduce strategic frictions between the US and its competitors and adversaries by negotiating directly and frequently with his counterparts.”
To this end, he believes Trump might pursue active dialogue with Xi, whom he has previously described as a “friend” and an “amazing guy.”
Trump's second term may also revive his high-profile diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Wyne added.
- US-South Korea relations
Shorrock, who has closely followed US military engagement in South Korea and Japan, also believes Trump may try to reopen talks with Kim.
“But it's not going to be the same when the situation is very different,” Shorrock said, referring to the comprehensive defense pact between Russia and North Korea that entered into force this month.
Trump's previous three summits with Kim – held in Singapore, Vietnam, and at the demilitarized military zone between the Koreas – failed to yield tangible outcomes.
The North Korean leader, in a statement after the US elections, said his country has “already gone to every length in negotiations with the US, and what was certain from the outcome was ... the unchanging invasive and hostile policy toward North Korea.”
Moreover, Kim has said unification with South Korea is “kind of off the table,” Shorrock added.
Under Yoon, relations between the Koreas have hit a new low, and concerns are mounting that Trump could negotiate directly with North Korea without consulting Seoul, the journalist said.
“There's probably a valid reason for that concern,” Shorrock admitted.
However, he emphasized that US bases in South Korea are “very significant” and form the “backbone of any future war with China over Taiwan.”
Shorrock suggested that a negotiated troop withdrawal from South Korea could be a long-term goal, especially in the event of a peace agreement with Pyongyang.
- Questions over US military presence
America's continued military presence in Asia remains a contentious issue.
In Japan's southern province of Okinawa, which hosts the majority of US troops stationed in the country, locals are questioning the future of this arrangement, said Shorrock, recalling his recent trip to the region.
“A vice governor asked me: Is the US going to be here for 100 years?” he said.
Similar questions are being raised in South Korea, where US troops have been stationed since the Korean War.
While Trump has defended his diplomacy with Kim, Shorrock argued that the Cold War alliances underpinning these relationships may no longer align with current realities.
“I don't trust Trump to act in the best interests of Korea or even the US,” Shorrock said.
“But I think taking a leap away from these Cold War alliances is a good idea.”
- Beijing's perspective
Einar Tangen, a Chinese political analyst, believes that Trump views China and Russia as “a threat to America's hegemony.”
“His only real interest internationally, other than extracting everyone's lunch money, is to divide China and Russia,” said Tangen, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute and founder of Asia Narratives.
Trump's “America First” agenda, he suggested, treats international issues and countries as “mere pawns” in his strategy to maintain US dominance.
At the official level, Beijing has signaled both a readiness to engage with the new Trump administration and a strong stance on defending its own interests.
“As long as China and the US cooperate, many great things can be accomplished,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a seminar in Beijing last week, an apparent response to Trump saying that the two superpowers can together solve “all of the problems of the world.”
However, in the same breath, Wang called out the US for its “crude interference in China's internal affairs on issues such as Taiwan.”
Beijing “must make a firm and strong response, resolutely defend our legitimate rights and interests, and safeguard the basic norms of international relations,” he said.
On Xi's congratulatory phone call to Trump, Wang said the Chinese president provided “strategic guidance for the development of China-US relations.”
“We hope that the new US government will make the right choice,” he added.
