2,000 or 3,000 voters in Philadelphia might be ‘essential' for Trump or Harris to win important battleground state, says political scientist Asher Lubotzky
With the US presidential election less than three weeks away, some key demographic groups could determine whether Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump occupy the White House after Nov. 5 -- in particular, the Jewish American community.
There are around six million Jews living in the US, and although not all of them are registered voters (some are minors, some are recent immigrants), that segment of the population still comprises an important voter base, according to Asher Lubotzky, a research fellow and professor of political science at the University of Houston who specializes in Israeli studies.
Lubotzky told Anadolu that the majority of Jewish voters, 70%-80%, have historically leaned Democratic for nearly the past century, since the administration of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, but he said today's political climate, especially with the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza, has some Jewish Americans considering leaning away from the Democratic party.
"This time around, this war in the Middle East is different for American Jews. It's different because it's not only a foreign policy issue," said Lubotzky. "It is, perhaps for the first time, a domestic issue, something strongly felt at home as a Jewish American. It's a domestic issue because of the (anti-Israeli and pro-Palestinian) protests, which many see as incorporating antisemitic tropes and harsh anti-Zionist language directed at American Jews on campuses and beyond."
While Lubotzky pointed out that both Harris and Trump have reinforced their alliances with Israel over the past month while on the campaign trail, he said that whereas Trump and Republicans are firm on their disdain for pro-Palestinian rallies, Harris has been sitting on the fence, either sympathizing with the Palestinian protesters or staying away from the controversial topic altogether.
While both candidates label themselves as pro-Israel, some polls indicate that the overwhelming Jewish support for the Democratic candidate might be shrinking.
In a poll released Oct. 15 by the Jewish independent non-profit group Forward, 62% of registered Jewish voters said they would vote for Harris versus 31% who said they would vote for Trump. That is a significant number, according to Lubotzky, especially when compared to past elections where the Democratic candidate led the Republican candidate by a much wider margin. For comparison, the lowest score among Jews by a Democratic candidate in recent decades was the 2012 election campaign of former President Barack Obama, who received 68% of the Jewish vote.
"Getting only around 60% of the Jewish vote is low for Democratic candidates," said Lubotzky of the recent Forward poll. "Still, most Jews are going to vote for Harris, but it may be considerably lower than the usual performance of Democratic candidates."
The professor added that several other polls released over the past few weeks showed Harris leading Trump by a wider margin: "Harris stood at over 70% (to Trump's 26%) among Jewish voters in battleground states, which is more the traditional range of Democratic candidates within the Jewish vote."
While the Jewish vote likely will not make a huge difference in traditionally blue, or Democratic, states like California, New Jersey and New York, Lubotzky told Anadolu that Jewish American voters could have a greater impact in the key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Numbers released Thursday by Brandeis University showed the breakdown of Jewish voters in each of those battleground states, according to its American Jewish Population Project: Arizona (113,000), Georgia (104,000), Michigan (105,000), Nevada (60,000), North Carolina (82,000), Pennsylvania (300,000-400,000) and Wisconsin (42,000).
Lubotzky told Anadolu that while the Jewish vote is important in all of those states, he believes their turnout in Pennsylvania will be crucial, especially in Philadelphia, where a majority of Jewish Americans live in that state. Jews count for 3.3% of Pennsylvania's population, which is a higher number than their share in the general US population."
"Pennsylvania is the Jewish version of what Michigan is considered to be for the Muslim vote," he continued.
“Could a few hundred or a few thousand Jewish voters who may swing from Democratic to Republican matter in Pennsylvania? That's a good question. It might be because, as you see right now, it's essentially a tie (between Trump and Harris) in Pennsylvania. 2,000 or 3,000 voters in Philadelphia might be essential for Trump or Harris to win Pennsylvania."
The latest compilation of the major polls taken in the United States through the polling tracker 538 shows Harris leading Trump by razor-thin decimal points, 48.1% to 47.5% in Pennsylvania, and with a margin of error anywhere between 3% and 5%, that means both candidates are in a dead heat as the election goes down to the wire.
As much as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and addressing antisemitism are important issues in the upcoming election, Lubotzky emphasized that most Jewish Americans are concerned with domestic issues that affect them and their families, just like most voters. He said that Harris and Trump need to shore up their stances on everything from abortion and immigration to the welfare system and the overall state of the economy.
"The Jewish community is very politically aware and active, including in political fundraising," said Lubotzky. "I think most are very worried about their own well-being, security and our future in America."
While no polls can state in certainty that either Trump or Harris will win in any of the battleground states and claim the White House after all the ballots are cast and counted on Nov. 5, Lubotzky believes that Jewish American voters could have a significant impact on who becomes the next president of the United States.
"They could really swing the election if all the data points add up to where you're that close in a state like Pennsylvania and one thousand or two thousand votes could matter," he said.
"But the battleground in Pennsylvania may matter a great deal compared to the other battleground states, depending on how tight the race is."
