South Korea's political crisis: Will stability remain elusive?

As South Korea finds itself embroiled in a political crisis after an attempted imposition of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol, analysts remain uncertain about the nation's stability when there is an already tense security environment on the Korean Peninsula.

Yoon, 63, has had his powers suspended pending a trial by the Constitutional Court, which will determine if he should be removed from office after 204 lawmakers voted to impeach him, with accusations ranging from inciting insurrection and treason to constitutional violations.

“I fully expect that the Constitutional Court will accept the resolution to impeach him … The case itself is so crystal clear, open and shut,” said Cho Hee-kyoung, an academic at Hongik University in Seoul, in an interview with Anadolu.

- A ‘self-coup' in the darkness

The crisis erupted on the night of Dec. 3 when Yoon shocked the nation by announcing martial law on live television.

“This has to be fake news because there is absolutely no ground to justify such an action,” recalled Cho, who lives near the 300-seat parliament, which is locally called the National Assembly and is now the epicenter of mass protests against Yoon.

Initially, she dismissed the sound of military helicopters flying over her neighborhood. However, as events unfolded, she rushed to check the news and discovered that martial law had indeed been declared.

The decree accused the National Assembly of being “anti-state” and implied its members were affiliated with North Korea. In response, 190 lawmakers rushed to parliament and successfully passed a motion to lift the martial law, despite Yoon's order to have police and soldiers forcibly remove them.

It was the first imposition of martial law in 45 years and the 17th in South Korean history. However, the legal landscape has changed since the 1980s, requiring parliamentary approval for such measures.

Authorities have since arrested five senior military officials – former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun; army chief of staff Gen. Park An-su; Lt. Gen. Yeo In-hyung, head of the Defense Counterintelligence Command; Lt. Gen. Kwak Jong-keun, head of the Army Special Warfare Command; and Lt. Gen. Lee Jin-woo, head of the Capital Defense Command.

Calling Yoon's actions a “self-coup,” Cho explained the severity of the decree: “Paragraph 6 of the martial law decree says, ‘If you disobey what the decree says, you automatically become a criminal and can be arrested without a warrant.'

“So, if a National Assembly member goes to vote to revoke the martial law declaration, he automatically becomes a criminal and he can be arrested on the spot without a warrant.”

- Political uncertainty

Yoon is facing investigations on three fronts: an impeachment trial by the Constitutional Court, a criminal probe by prosecutors, and a joint inquiry by police, the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), and the Defense Ministry's investigation unit.

He is accused of inciting insurrection, treason, and abuse of power, among other charges. While sitting presidents in South Korea are generally immune from prosecution, exceptions are made for insurrection and treason.

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) has seen its leadership resign en masse following Yoon's impeachment, where 12 of its members also voted against the president.

If the Constitutional Court – which will hold the first hearing on Dec. 27 – upholds the impeachment, South Korea will hold a new presidential election within 60 days.

“So, it may be around next May or June,” said Hyun Woong Hong, a visiting scholar at Bogazici University in Istanbul.

For the court to uphold the impeachment, six of its nine judges have to vote in favor of removing Yoon. At the moment, the Constitutional Court has a total of six judges, so only a unanimous vote will lead to Yoon's ouster.

If the court rejects the impeachment, Yoon will resume office with over two-and-a-half years remaining in his term. However, the political divide between the presidency and parliament is likely to intensify.

“The crisis is going to continue, and on every issue, they (government and opposition) are going to conflict with each other,” Hyun added.

Cho agreed, noting the growing tensions between Yoon's administration and the opposition-led parliament, which gained a majority earlier this year. The Democratic Party emerged with the largest share of 170 seats, and along with five allies, it now has 192 members in the opposition bloc.

Yoon has accused the opposition of “paralyzing” the government through impeachment motions and has vetoed efforts to investigate his wife, First Lady Kim Keon Hee, over corruption allegations.

- Will elections bring stability?

Even if Yoon survives the impeachment trial, legal troubles loom large, according to Cho.

“There is also the criminal investigation which will happen, and there will be a criminal trial. He will be charged with insurrection or treason, both charges where there is no immunity even for a president, and there is ample evidence to convict him for both of those crimes,” she said.

Even if he is restored to the office, she added, “it won't be very long before he actually leaves.”

The president's approval ratings have plummeted to a record low of 11%, and opposition leader Lee Jae Myung is seen as the frontrunner in the event of a new election.

However, Lee's candidacy is also in question, as the former mayor of Seongnam, South Korea's fourth-largest city, faces several legal battles, including corruption charges.

If convicted, Lee would be out of the race for president.

While Hyun does believe an opposition election win could resolve South Korea's political crisis, he expressed concern over the concentration of power with one party if the opposition wins both the presidency and maintains its parliamentary majority.

- Repercussions for the military

The failed martial law attempt has also cast a spotlight on South Korea's military, with calls for reforms to ensure its alignment with democratic principles.

Cho sees the crisis as an opportunity to restructure the military.

“There is going to be some, I don't think lasting damage, but certainly short-term impact because so many high-level officers seem to have been involved,” she said, adding that the problem appears concentrated among commanders with specific ideological leanings.

Recalling the night of Dec. 3, she praised mid-level officers and rank-and-file soldiers for questioning orders and de-escalating tensions.

Cho stressed that while South Korea has reformed many of its institutions to embrace democracy, the military remains a “bastion of former culture.”

“I hope that this might be an opportunity and a chance to reform that.”