A new situation on the ground: U.S. missiles, Russian radar, Turkish drones

In the past, this would have been something television channels would cover for days. But this time, it's being handled quietly and discreetly. I’m talking about the extensive cross-border operation conducted by the Turkish Armed Forces in northern Iraq.

This might be the largest operation ever conducted to date. The heroic tales would require pages to write. It's spreading like ink drops. Nevertheless, the Turkish state’s strategic thinking, diplomacy, and military experience have chosen to remain silent this time. The reason is that every discussion with Iraq and northern Iraq is disrupted by intervening actors.

Everything has its balance. Ultimately, this operation is part of a larger strategy extending from the Iraq-Iran border to the Mediterranean. Some new developments in the Syrian arena are also noteworthy. The U.S. is setting up an air defense system in the terror zone, and the Russians no longer oppose Turkish UAVs entering the region. I’ll explain all of this, supplementing my analysis with information gathered from the field.

Terrorists Fleeing South

President Erdoğan had said, “We will soon close the lock in northern Iraq.” It is said that the targeted control areas of Operation Claw-Lock are almost completed. Due to detected terrorist elements, the operation sometimes extends to previously unplanned locations. In this context, operations have extended to the Hakurk region, up to the Iranian border.

Once the operation is complete, the areas in northern Iraq where the terrorist organization has been active and threatening our borders will be under control. Terrorists are fleeing south upon seeing this. However, there are also terrorists behind the lines held by the Turkish soldiers. These will be neutralized through "in-line" operations (some of these have already begun to surrender after their leaders fled south). The task of the Iraqi border guards starts where the Turkish Armed Forces’ control ends (this had previously been announced by Iraqi authorities). Thus, the PKK will be prevented from targeting the areas occupied by Turkish soldiers.

What will happen to the terrorists fleeing south? That’s somewhat of an Iraqi issue. As Foreign Minister Fidan said, “The PKK is becoming a national security issue for Iraq.” Indeed, Baghdad recently decided to refer to the PKK as a “banned organization” in official correspondence.

Listening Devices Found in Villages

The findings related to villages cleared of terrorism in northern Iraq are quite interesting. It has been reported that the terrorist organization had fortified many villages, displaced civilians, set up ammunition depots near places of worship like mosques and churches, and blew up these depots when the Turkish forces approached. Among the materials seized in the villages were listening devices used for signal intelligence. This once again proves that the terrorist organization is being technologically supported by some states.

The operation will close the crossing points on the Iran-Iraq border. And equally important: Baghdad has started constructing a wall and barbed wire along the Iraq-Syria border. It is also said that, like Türkiye, it will dig trenches. This is expected to close off the Iraq-Syria border to terrorist movements. These three developments will deal a significant blow to the terrorist organization’s activities in Iraq. Thus, we can say that the U.S. strategy of merging terror elements from Syria and Iraq has also collapsed.

Three Factors in Syria

The situation in Syria is complex. There are a few factors that add to the uncertainty. One: What will happen with the U.S. elections? The result will provide important clues about the U.S. presence in Syria and necessary steps will be taken based on the new situation. Two: How will the Türkiye-Syria dialogue process evolve? Three: What position will Russia and Iran take on this issue?

My analysis suggests that without clarity on the U.S. elections and the dialogue process with Damascus, Ankara will not move beyond the current status quo. At present, Ankara quickly intervenes with targeted operations when it perceives a threat from Syria, focusing on terrorist leaders and infrastructure, preventing the organization from moving. This could change if the terrorist organization, which has postponed its so-called elections to August, attempts to hold them again. There are reports that the terrorist organization is releasing Daesh terrorists to intimidate the U.S. administration, which could alter the status quo.

Interesting New Developments on the Ground

The PKK’s leader in Syria, Ferhat Abdi Şahin, recently made an interesting statement. He said the Damascus regime has kept its distance (the U.S. is trying to mediate between the two). He indicated that they are open to discussions with all actors, including Türkiye. This is a new stance. The organization is trying to adjust its position based on the U.S. withdrawal from the region. We will examine this in detail in future articles.

The U.S. has installed an air defense system in northern Syria. This development has been interpreted by the Turkish public as a "shield for terrorists." While this is not incorrect, it doesn’t fully capture the picture. The missiles are believed to be targeting Iran. The goal is to protect both Israel and U.S. bases from potential Iranian attacks. Thus, the U.S. is preparing for possible Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the spread of conflict. It is also worth noting this.

It is claimed that Turkish-Russian joint patrols in Syria will resume. Reliable sources say “they might start.” Previously, the Russians opposed joint patrols on the M4 highway due to “attack risks.” Now, they are acting more willingly. The note is that “Russia is now very warm towards us” regarding Turkish-Russian relations in Syria. The Russians no longer object to Turkish UAVs entering the airspace they control in Syria—one might say they are “not activating their radars.” This is a new development. The situation in Syria is intricate, dynamic, and the balances are shifting.