Which America will win the election?

On November 5, Americans will be voting not only for the President of the United States but also for the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, while Democrats control the Senate with just two seats.

It’s expected that Republicans will retain their slim majority in the House, while they also seem to have a slight edge in the Senate races. Democrats face the challenge of defending more seats compared to Republicans. Additionally, eight Senate seats are expected to be highly competitive.

Trump is running for President for the third time, and if he loses, he will not be able to run again. Since 2016, Trump has exerted control over the Republican Party. Traditionally, a President who loses an election steps back from active politics, but after his 2020 loss, Trump chose otherwise. "Centrist Republicans" and "Neocons" are lying in wait, hoping for Trump’s influence over the party to diminish. Some Centrist Republicans and Neocons even support Kamala Harris, preferring her win if it means Trump’s defeat. Should Trump lose, an internal struggle is likely within the Republican ranks.

The same holds for the "Democratic front" if Kamala Harris loses. Already, a wave of finger-pointing seems to have started. Harris became the nominee not through primaries but because Joe Biden, who had won the primaries, withdrew mid-race. As a result, Biden and his team have not fully embraced her candidacy, often treating Harris as a sidelined Vice President. Political analysts attribute Harris’s perceived underperformance as Vice President to this dynamic.

Throughout her campaign, Kamala Harris has avoided appearing alongside Biden, while Biden, who holds his own rallies, has inadvertently aided Trump through a series of gaffes. Biden’s comment that Trump should be "locked up" was later clarified as "locked out of the ballots," while his reference to Trump supporters as "trash" has put Harris in a difficult political position. Harris has attempted to smooth things over, while the White House broke protocol by removing Biden’s remarks from the official record.

Another election-related issue is the potential chaos that could follow if Trump loses. Analysts warn that if Trump does not accept the election results as legitimate, there could be a more severe repeat of the events between November 3, 2020, and January 6, 2021, when the U.S. Capitol was stormed.

Trump and his allies have refused to commit to accepting the legitimacy of the election results if Harris wins. It’s expected that more Trump-aligned representatives will be in the new Congress compared to the previous one. Many Republicans who accepted the 2020 election results were defeated in primaries by Trump-backed challengers, giving Trump even more influence over the House.

The same holds true for Republican-led state administrations that have the authority to certify election results. If Kamala Harris wins, more states may align themselves with Trump, potentially deepening the post-election chaos.

Both the FBI and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have issued warnings months in advance, preparing for possible post-election chaos. These warnings point to an increase in discussions among extremist groups about a potential “civil war” connected to the election results. DHS’s “2025 Threat Assessment” report, released earlier this year, also noted that the 2024 elections could become a major source of motivation for violent groups.

With only two days to go, Harris and Trump are still neck-and-neck. As I noted in my previous article, the election’s outcome will be decided by results in seven key states.

Given the deep political and cultural divide within American society, the November 5 elections are unfolding in an intensely competitive atmosphere, unlike previous elections. This political battle carries the potential to escalate into a "civil war," as two divergent Americas seem to be clashing. The outcome of this contest will significantly impact the United States’ relationship with the rest of the world.