What comes after Abbas...

The visit of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to Türkiye, and his speech at the Parliament, were among the highlights of the past week. Following President Erdoğan’s remarks in Rize on July 27, 2024, where he stated, “Some political parties in our country say, ‘The government should invite the Palestinian President to Türkiye and let him speak in Parliament.’ Who says we didn’t invite him? We did invite him, but he didn’t come. Frankly, Mr. Abbas owes us an apology for that. We invited him, but he didn’t show up. We are waiting. Let’s see if he will come,” and after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated under suspicious circumstances in Tehran on July 31, 2024, Abbas had no choice but to accept Türkiye’s invitation.

Mahmoud Abbas’s speech in Parliament was rather underwhelming, due both to his contentious position in Palestinian politics and his limited oratory skills. However, it was still significant to hear Palestine’s rightful cause proclaimed from Ankara to the world, even if it came from Abbas.

Now nearly 90 years old, Mahmoud Abbas has been a key figure on the Palestinian front since the 1960s, witnessing every era and turning point in the struggle against Israeli occupation. Since Yasser Arafat's death in 2004, Abbas has continued in his role as "president." His advanced age and health condition, however, have sparked discussions about what comes after Abbas on the Palestinian political stage.

The leading candidate to succeed Abbas is Mohammed Dahlan, who has been embroiled in allegations surrounding Arafat's alleged poisoning. After losing the war he waged against Hamas members in Gaza following Hamas's victory in the 2006 elections, Dahlan was also sidelined by Abbas. Since 2011, Dahlan has been living in the UAE, where he has acquired Serbian and Montenegrin citizenship, positioning himself — with the UAE's blessing — in both the Balkans and Europe.

It won’t be easy for Mohammed Dahlan to quickly fill Abbas’s shoes and gain acceptance in Palestinian politics, given his long absence from Gaza and Ramallah. However, Dahlan’s presence signals an impending intense rivalry among the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia over who will dominate the Palestinian political arena post-Abbas. Dahlan also maintains close ties with Israeli and American intelligence services and still controls some loyal groups within Palestine.

Unlike Hamas, Fatah, and the PLO have not produced charismatic leaders to replace Arafat. It's doubtful whether Dahlan can fulfill this social need. Another prominent figure within Fatah, political and military leader Marwan Barghouti, has been imprisoned by Israel for nearly 20 years. Barghouti’s imprisonment is seen as convenient for the Palestinian Authority, with some alleging a consensus on this matter between Ramallah and Tel Aviv.

Hamas, driven to rely on Iran due to its demonization by some powerful Arab states, seems poised to pursue an ideologically independent struggle under the leadership of Yahya Sinwar. Avoiding giving those Arab countries that are eager to label Hamas as an "Iranian puppet" any further ammunition will be a key challenge for Hamas.

Beyond these dynamics, the harsh consequences of Israeli occupation and various deprivations in Palestinian territories may also give rise to new movements. For example, Jenin in the West Bank is poised to become a significant center of resistance. Every Israeli assault on Jenin, which is under constant surveillance, also strengthens the local resistance forces.

Fatah was established in 1959 by Palestinian refugees living in Kuwait. Later, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, eager to champion the Palestinian cause, orchestrated the founding of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1964. Hamas emerged in 1987, built on the backlash against the PLO. Since the resolve to fight against Israeli occupation will never fade, it’s worth keeping in mind that new movements could arise to shoulder the Palestinian cause in the future.