The failed assassination attempt against former President Trump has clearly changed the dynamics of the presidential race, giving the Republican candidate a critical advantage. This historic event occurred at a juncture when Democrats are increasing pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race, transforming Trump into a real victim. The defiant photos of Trump leaving the podium have reinforced his image as a leader who takes a bullet and fights for the American people. By not hesitating to turn this historic moment into a political victory, Trump will now find it easier to mobilize his base and secure full support from Republicans. Despite all these advantages, considering the polarized politics of the country, it’s still early to say that Trump is already the next President of the United States.
Security Breach and Victimization
Many details about the assassination attempt have been written and various conspiracy theories have been produced. From those claiming that the American deep state tried to eliminate Trump to those saying that the events were entirely staged, a wide range of scenarios have been written. What we know for sure is that the Secret Service, responsible for Trump's protection, ultimately failed to prevent a security breach. The reasons for this failure will be investigated and debated for a long time. The Secret Service's performance and established procedures, which were sometimes a topic of debate even before this incident, will also be scrutinized in great detail. It is highly likely that Republicans will follow a political communication strategy seeking to find a Democratic hand behind the incident.
We can expect the investigation processes to be politicized and used as a tool for further political polarization, but such a strategy may not benefit Trump. While investigating the assassination attempt is, of course, normal, turning it into an endless political war against Democrats and especially security forces could backfire. The image Trump needs in the elections is that of a leader who has taken a bullet for his country but can still bring the nation together after such a tragic event. The need to convince independent voters has not disappeared for Trump, who constantly mobilizes his base with extreme rhetoric and manages to shift the parameters of the debate in his favor. Convincing such voters that a candidate like Biden cannot run the country is not very difficult after Biden’s debate fiasco. However, reassuring voters that Trump will not lead the country into instability and the unknown will be important for centrist voters.
Vice President J.D. Vance Move
At the Republican Party Congress, Trump made a smart choice by announcing Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his Vice Presidential candidate. Vance was previously one of the 'Never Trumpers' who had harsh words for Trump. Vance is the author of "Hillbilly Elegy," a book that shows how the socio-economic problems of poorly educated whites in rural areas create fertile ground for populist leaders like Trump and brings this issue to the forefront of the national agenda. Elected as an Ohio senator and having harshly criticized Trump with insults, Vance will have political significance in swing states in the Northeast and Midwest. In 2016, Trump gained the support of groups reacting to a system that left them to their fate with unemployment and drugs, but in 2020, he couldn’t prevent Biden from winning over the working class with his strong ties to unions. With the Vance move, Trump has brought in a name with significance in these states who can critically contribute to his election strategy.
Trump’s move to capitalize on the sympathy and political credit he gathered from the assassination attempt with the J.D. Vance pick is currently making the wind blow in his favor. If Trump softens his divisive and polarizing political rhetoric with more unifying messages, he could gain even more advantage. However, those who argue that the attack is a result of the country's atmosphere of division and polarization will hold Trump responsible for creating this political climate. There will be a significant number of people who believe voting for Trump will take the country on a new adventure. In this case, the Democrats, who currently seem in disarray, might make a game-changing strategic move by choosing a different candidate, which could balance Trump’s advantage to some extent. If Biden insists on running, the Democrats’ job will be much harder because forming an anti-Trump front against a victimized Trump won’t be enough.
In the 2016 election, although the Trump campaign seemed completely disorganized in August, the news of an investigation into Hillary Clinton changed the course of the election. The Trump campaign managed to regroup within a few months and win the election. Whether Biden stays in the race and what image will emerge at the Democratic Party Congress is still unknown. Even after these are clarified, many different developments could change the course of the election. Currently, Trump is in a much more advantageous position, but it’s still too early to declare his presidency. Just being a victim won’t be enough; how he will lead the country differently from the Democratic alternative will be more decisive in the eyes of voters.
