Israel's perpetual war strategy after October 7

A full year ago this week, I was in Ankara for a meeting. When Hamas launched its attacks on October 7, the Palestinian issue quickly became the main agenda. It became evident that Israel was facing significant security vulnerabilities, and there was much discussion about the timing of Hamas's actions. There was a consensus that Israel would respond disproportionately. It was clear that the conflict between Israel and Hamas was entering a new phase, and discussions were underway about the steps needed for a political resolution after the conflict. Looking back a year later, it’s hard to believe that no one expected Israel to shift into a "perpetual war" mode by rendering Gaza unlivable and extending the conflict to other countries.

THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE A YEAR AGO

Last year, just before October 7, the Palestinian issue seemed to be off the table for resolution. With the political support of the Trump administration, Israel had normalized relations with many Arab countries through the Abraham Accords. The Biden administration was also negotiating normalization with Saudi Arabia. Israel argued that the Palestinian issue was now merely a "conflict management" matter, and they believed that if they reached an agreement with the Saudis, the issue would resolve itself. They had convinced many Western countries and the U.S. that establishing a Palestinian state was unrealistic.

Meanwhile, as the blockade of Gaza continued, new settlements were being built in the West Bank. With the occupation deepening, the siege on Gaza had left millions of people at the mercy of Israel. Türkiye continued to raise its voice regarding the settlements and the blockade on Gaza. It managed to reduce Israeli pressure in Palestine during Ramadan through diplomatic contacts with the Israeli president, successfully halting the violence. After many years, Türkiye cautiously normalized relations with Israel, but it declared Jerusalem as its "red line," linking the fate of normalization to the Palestinian issue.

Washington, perhaps the biggest party responsible for the failure to achieve a two-state solution and peace for the Palestinian issue, seemed to want to forget about this problem altogether. The Biden administration was seeking a nuclear deal with Iran but wasn't applying enough pressure. They aimed to create a certain status quo with Iran while ignoring the rest of the Middle East and focusing on China. Biden’s National Security Advisor Sullivan viewed the invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity to rally the West and, just before October 7, he published an article emphasizing that the Middle East was more peaceful than ever, presenting it as an achievement of the administration.

A "HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY" FOR NETANYAHU

What we learned was that the calm Sullivan referred to was merely the calm before the storm. Hamas, likely to prove that Israel’s propaganda of “this issue is over” was false, launched the October 7 attack with Iranian assistance. The attack, which likely exceeded expectations, was seen by Netanyahu, who was facing difficult days at home, as a historic opportunity. Describing the attack as Israel's September 11, Netanyahu was apparently alluding to the U.S. entering a perpetual war mode. Rather than trying to control Israel’s response to Hamas, the Biden administration fully supported it, making Netanyahu’s job easier.

Over the past year, the Israeli government has not only destroyed Gaza but has also pursued a policy of ethnic cleansing, emboldened by American support, without fear of being tried for genocide in international courts. Netanyahu sought to expand the strategy of perpetual war to Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, trying to save his political career and bind Washington's hands. At a point when the Biden administration expressed the need to criticize Israel's Gaza strategy before heading into elections, Netanyahu ordered an attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

Netanyahu’s move, signaling that the issue was not Gaza but rather a regional war with Iran, received billions of dollars in aid from Congress and standing ovations. Despite widespread protests and university demonstrations against Biden from the American public, the administration continued to emphasize “Israel’s right to self-defense.” Netanyahu, one of the shrewdest politicians regarding American internal politics, didn’t hesitate to exploit the power of the Israeli lobby and even managed to break the pressure that opposition members faced from Congress.

Currently, the Netanyahu government is preparing for a major attack on Iran, seizing the opportunity presented by the void before the American elections to drag the region into a larger war. Seizing the moment, they are trying to neutralize Hezbollah and force the U.S. to eliminate Iran's nuclear program. While it can be predicted that Washington and Tehran do not wish to engage in direct conflict and that Netanyahu may not escalate beyond mere threats, one cannot underestimate the possibility that the long-standing shadow war with Iran could turn into an outright war.