Is the real issue the humanitarian crisis in Gaza or the US elections?

It’s hard to believe that the Biden administration’s letter suggesting that military aid to Israel could be halted unless humanitarian aid flows into Gaza isn’t tied to the upcoming U.S. elections. After turning a blind eye for over a year to the ethnic cleansing and policies that have starved civilians, it seems Biden’s administration has suddenly remembered this crisis just three weeks before the elections. The timing and leaking of this letter could be interpreted as part of two weeks of negotiations with Israel, which is determined to respond to Iran's October 1st attack. The administration seems to be sending a dual message to the American public: that it is doing all it can to address the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and that it is willing to halt military aid to Israel if necessary. However, it appears this effort is less about the situation in Gaza and more about avoiding being dragged into a war with Iran just before the election.

BIDEN DOESN'T WANT A WAR WITH IRAN

For months, the Biden administration supported the destruction of Gaza, using the excuse of Israel's October 7th attack. It ignored calls for a ceasefire at protests across the U.S., effectively suspending the legal requirement that American military aid not be used against civilians. Some State Department officials even resigned in protest of the rapid approval of military aid to Israel without the necessary procedures. Under growing public pressure, the administration leaked the news that a small portion of munitions had been suspended. The administration had drawn a red line, stating that if Israel entered Rafah, it would suspend military aid, but nothing came of that threat.

Then, Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria shifted the focus away from public pressure in the U.S. Congress swiftly passed a $17 billion aid package for Israel, while allocating $9 billion for humanitarian aid to Gaza. The Biden administration was willing to foot the bill for the uninhabitable conditions created in Gaza as long as Israel didn't escalate the conflict. But Netanyahu's government continued to raise the stakes, and the Biden administration kept scrambling to adjust. The administration had no strategy to end the war in Gaza or resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. Even a ceasefire based on a prisoner exchange couldn’t be agreed upon with Tel Aviv.

Netanyahu simultaneously shifted the narrative to the Israel-Iran axis with the attack on the Syrian consulate and kept the presence of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on the agenda. Despite the discomfort Biden felt at the potential for a regional war, the U.S. was forced to send warships and American soldiers to ensure Israel's security. From the start, Biden’s focus was on preventing a regional conflict, keeping it contained to Gaza. However, Israel was determined to push Washington into attacking Iran while it had the chance. Iran’s direct responses to Israel in April and October only made Netanyahu’s job easier, though Biden had no desire to enter a war with Iran.

THE POSSIBILITY OF IRAN BECOMING A NUCLEAR POWER

The strategic cost of Gaza’s destruction for Washington was relatively low. Even though America’s prestige was eroded and its double standards were exposed, it remained committed to diplomatically shielding Israel. Ignoring the massacres in Gaza didn’t involve American troops on the ground or force the U.S. into a war. But when it came to Lebanon, it was clear the U.S. did not want a new civil war scenario in the country, as this would likely drag Iran into conflict with Israel and force the U.S. into war. More critically, an American-Iranian war could prompt Iran to take steps toward becoming a nuclear power, which would trigger a regional nuclear arms race, a nightmare scenario for Washington.

Washington doesn’t want Iran to become a nuclear power because it would disrupt the nuclear balance not only in the region but globally. The U.S. has repeatedly stated, as a matter of policy, that it would not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. If Washington believed it could eliminate Iran’s nuclear program through military action at an acceptable cost, it would have done so by now. Israel has been unable to convince Washington to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities for this very reason. The U.S. doesn’t want to be drawn into a war it hasn’t chosen and has been trying to limit Tel Aviv’s actions over the past two weeks. That’s why, after the October 1st attacks, Israel has shifted its rhetoric from retaliating against Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities to targeting only military sites. The Biden administration has made it clear it won’t enter a war if Israel attacks Iran, and it’s working to prevent the situation from escalating into a full-scale conflict.

The Biden administration’s recent letter should be understood in this context. Washington is trying to limit the unpredictable consequences of Israel’s potential response to Iran before the U.S. elections. The fact that only one American THAAD defense system has been sent to Israel suggests the U.S. is not preparing for a full-scale war with Iran. By appearing to pressure Israel on the humanitarian situation in Gaza, the Biden administration is trying to reduce the electoral pressure from Palestine-related protests while also preventing Israel from launching a major operation before the elections. The October 1st attacks by Iran were relatively effective, and Israel seems to have realized once again that it cannot conduct a major war without American support and aid.

The Palestinian issue was a factor in Biden’s decision not to run for re-election, and it’s not far-fetched to think that it could cost Kamala Harris the presidency in Michigan on November 5th. The Biden administration doesn’t want an October surprise in the form of a war with Iran initiated by Netanyahu, and it certainly doesn’t want to provoke Iran into taking steps toward becoming a nuclear power. Ultimately, it’s fair to say that the real issue here isn’t the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza but the fate of the American election.